FOR MOST TEAMS, Sunday marked the mid-point of the NFL regular season and 2016 has proven to be one of those mystifying years where there a few good teams, plenty of awful franchises but no truly elite contender.
This isn’t just a hot take for the sake of a headline by the way. Both ESPN Analytics and FiveThirtyEight have crunched the numbers and proven there are no great teams in 2016.
Instead, what you have this season is three or four very good teams, six to eight terrible ones and everyone else taking up a middle ground.
We’ll go through it team by team shortly but the overwhelming theme this year is that sides who are great on offensive are struggling on defence (hi Atlanta) and vice versa (we’re looking at you Seahawks).
But what is it stopping your team from being great?
AFC
East
Wilfredo Lee / AP/Press Association Images
Wilfredo Lee / AP/Press Association Images / AP/Press Association Images
New England Patriots (6-1)
The closest thing we have to a complete team, the Pats are occasionally let down by a defence that ranks 14th. This is partly due to how often they are on the field with only four teams facing more defensive snaps than New England.
Buffalo Bills (4-4)
The Bills are the second best team in the division but injuries at linebacker and wide receiver will ultimately cost Buffalo the chance to win the East while they’ll realistically need to go 6-2 over the remainder of the season to grab a wildcard spot. That’s unlikely to happen.
Miami Dolphins (3-4)
They showed signs of life in the weeks leading up to their bye but how many 200-yard rushing games from Jay Ajayi can they rely on? The Fins don’t have a good quarterback in Ryan Tannehill but he’s not helped by an offensive line that ranks in the bottom three in the league in pass protection.
New York Jets (3-5)
Benching your quarterback after throwing six interceptions and then having to put him back in because the back-up tears his ACL is never a good look. Neither is just barely managing a win over the Browns.
North
Gary Landers / AP/Press Association Images
Gary Landers / AP/Press Association Images / AP/Press Association Images
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
As we saw before they went on their bye-week, the Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger are a completely different proposition to the Steelers without their starting quarterback. His injury will cost them a first round bye and, with it, a chance at the Super Bowl.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1)
The problem for the Bengals is that their defence is playing at less than the elite level they’ve reached for the past few seasons ranking 26th in yards given up per play which results in conceding nearly 24 points per game. Even with AJ Green, that’s a huge handicap to make up.
Baltimore Ravens (3-4)
The Ravens opened the season with three straight wins but they have only scored 11 offensive TDs making them the second least potent attack in the league. Without an elite defence, that’s not a winning formula.
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Cleveland Browns (0-8)
To be fair to the Browns, they’ve been feisty all season. But having six different quarterbacks through eight games is going to make it difficult for any team. After losing to the Jets, 0-16 now looks a real possibility.
South*
AP / Press Association Images
AP / Press Association Images / Press Association Images
Houston Texans (5-3)
Somebody is going to win the AFC South but the Houston Texans are not a very good football team.
Tennessee Titans (4-4)
Somebody is going to win the AFC South but the Tennessee Titans are not a very good football team.
Indianapolis Colts (3-5)
Somebody is going to win the AFC South but the Indianapolis Colts are not a very good football team.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)
Somebody is going to win the AFC South but the Jacksonville Jaguars are not a very good football team.
*The above was not a mistake
West
Phelan Ebenhack / AP/Press Association Images
Phelan Ebenhack / AP/Press Association Images / AP/Press Association Images
Oakland Raiders (6-2)
The Raiders may have lived up to their pre-season hype in terms of their explosive offence — indeed, Derek Carr might even be playing two or three levels above expectations — and win/loss ratio but they may well be the most average 6-2 team of all time thanks to their 31st ranked defence.
Denver Broncos (5-2)
The Broncos are probably the second best team in the AFC and, at times, both the defence and offence have looked better than last year’s Super Bowl winning incarnation. However, the division means they won’t get enough wins to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
The Chiefs are fully capable of putting together a run to the playoffs like they did last season but the lack of explosiveness on offence — 14th in points per game and the second fewest yards per attempt in the league — will haunt them come January.
San Diego Chargers (3-5)
The best ‘bad’ team in the NFL, the Chargers must be cursing themselves that a) they’re in the best division in football and b) left sure-fire Defensive Rookie of the Year Joey Bosa sitting for the first few weeks. Even with that, their record could easily be 6-2.
NFC
East
Michael Ainsworth / AP/Press Association Images
Michael Ainsworth / AP/Press Association Images / AP/Press Association Images
Dallas Cowboys (6-1) On offence the Cowboys have two of the top three Rookie of the Year candidates in Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott but their 11th ranked defence is what stops them being a great team. That does n0t mean they’re not real Super Bowl contenders, however.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-3) The biggest issue for Philly is the fact they are hamstrung by one of the weakest wide receiver corps in the league. That defence has shown that, while it can be elite (see Vikings and Steelers wins) it sometimes forgets to turn up (see Cowboys and Washington losses).
Washington (4-3-1) Kirk Cousins played above himself last year and hasn’t been able to hit those heights this season. Washington wants to be a run team but Matt Jones — who didn’t start yesterday — has fumbled the ball once ever 33 carries, the NFL average is once per 100.
New York Giants (4-3) I’m not exactly sure how the Giants have reached four wins considering they are ranked 19th on offence and 17th on defence. However, in a crowded division which has shown anyone can beat anyone, they’re still in the wild card race.
North
Darron Cummings / AP/Press Association Images
Darron Cummings / AP/Press Association Images / AP/Press Association Images
Minnesota Vikings (5-1) Up to their defeat at the hands of the Eagles, the Vikings looked really good but the question you have to ask yourself is, if a team with the ghost of Peyton Manning at quarterback can win a Super Bowl, can one with Sam Bradford follow it up a year later?
Green Bay Packers (4-3) Even in a pass heavy league, the lack of any running backs is going to be an issue. However, the biggest problem for the Packers is consistency. When they get it together on offence (v Atlanta) their defence lets them down and vice versa (v Vikings).
Detroit Lions (4-4) Matthew Stafford and the Lions offence have not skipped a beat since the departure of Calvin Johnson but the league’s 25th ranked defence — and yesterday’s loss to Houston — will cost them a playoff spot.
Chicago Bears (1-6) At least the Cubs still have a shot at the World Series.
South
Butch Dill / AP/Press Association Images
Butch Dill / AP/Press Association Images / AP/Press Association Images
Atlanta Falcons (5-3) While nobody scores as many points as Atlanta, only three teams are giving up more points per game than the Falcons (28.9) who brought in head coach Dan Quinn for his defensive prowess.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4) After a disappointing start to the season, the Bucs appeared to turn things around but have still to win a home game and you can’t reach the postseason if you can’t win in your own house.
New Orleans Saints (3-4) One team that does know how to win at home is the Saints. In the Superdome, they’ve scored nearly 35 points per game this season compared to an average of 23 on the road — and that’s what will keep them out of the playoffs.
Carolina Panthers (2-5) The Panthers have learned the hard way that you can’t replace elite corners with cap space. However, there are few streakier teams in the league so don’t expect them to prop up this division for long.
West
Kathy Willens / AP/Press Association Images
Kathy Willens / AP/Press Association Images / AP/Press Association Images
Seattle Seahawks (4-2-1) The Seahawks could be one of the all time great teams if they actually bothered to invest in their offensive line. Will that come back to haunt them again this season?
Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1) The Cardinals have had to completely reshape themselves on offence from the deep-threat outfit they were last year to a dink-and-dunk, run first team this. This means they’re not great at coming from behind, as yesterday proved.
Los Angeles Rams (3-4) “I’m not going 7-9 or 8-8″ Jeff Fisher told his team on Hard Knocks. Sure Jeff. Sure.
San Francisco 49ers (1-6) There’s not much to say about the worst roster in football other than the San Francisco 49ers have the worst roster in football.
Here's why your favourite NFL team probably isn't very good
FOR MOST TEAMS, Sunday marked the mid-point of the NFL regular season and 2016 has proven to be one of those mystifying years where there a few good teams, plenty of awful franchises but no truly elite contender.
This isn’t just a hot take for the sake of a headline by the way. Both ESPN Analytics and FiveThirtyEight have crunched the numbers and proven there are no great teams in 2016.
Instead, what you have this season is three or four very good teams, six to eight terrible ones and everyone else taking up a middle ground.
We’ll go through it team by team shortly but the overwhelming theme this year is that sides who are great on offensive are struggling on defence (hi Atlanta) and vice versa (we’re looking at you Seahawks).
But what is it stopping your team from being great?
AFC
East
New England Patriots (6-1)
The closest thing we have to a complete team, the Pats are occasionally let down by a defence that ranks 14th. This is partly due to how often they are on the field with only four teams facing more defensive snaps than New England.
Buffalo Bills (4-4)
The Bills are the second best team in the division but injuries at linebacker and wide receiver will ultimately cost Buffalo the chance to win the East while they’ll realistically need to go 6-2 over the remainder of the season to grab a wildcard spot. That’s unlikely to happen.
Miami Dolphins (3-4)
They showed signs of life in the weeks leading up to their bye but how many 200-yard rushing games from Jay Ajayi can they rely on? The Fins don’t have a good quarterback in Ryan Tannehill but he’s not helped by an offensive line that ranks in the bottom three in the league in pass protection.
New York Jets (3-5)
Benching your quarterback after throwing six interceptions and then having to put him back in because the back-up tears his ACL is never a good look. Neither is just barely managing a win over the Browns.
North
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
As we saw before they went on their bye-week, the Steelers with Ben Roethlisberger are a completely different proposition to the Steelers without their starting quarterback. His injury will cost them a first round bye and, with it, a chance at the Super Bowl.
Cincinnati Bengals (3-4-1)
The problem for the Bengals is that their defence is playing at less than the elite level they’ve reached for the past few seasons ranking 26th in yards given up per play which results in conceding nearly 24 points per game. Even with AJ Green, that’s a huge handicap to make up.
Baltimore Ravens (3-4)
The Ravens opened the season with three straight wins but they have only scored 11 offensive TDs making them the second least potent attack in the league. Without an elite defence, that’s not a winning formula.
Cleveland Browns (0-8)
To be fair to the Browns, they’ve been feisty all season. But having six different quarterbacks through eight games is going to make it difficult for any team. After losing to the Jets, 0-16 now looks a real possibility.
South*
Houston Texans (5-3)
Somebody is going to win the AFC South but the Houston Texans are not a very good football team.
Tennessee Titans (4-4)
Somebody is going to win the AFC South but the Tennessee Titans are not a very good football team.
Indianapolis Colts (3-5)
Somebody is going to win the AFC South but the Indianapolis Colts are not a very good football team.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)
Somebody is going to win the AFC South but the Jacksonville Jaguars are not a very good football team.
*The above was not a mistake
West
Oakland Raiders (6-2)
The Raiders may have lived up to their pre-season hype in terms of their explosive offence — indeed, Derek Carr might even be playing two or three levels above expectations — and win/loss ratio but they may well be the most average 6-2 team of all time thanks to their 31st ranked defence.
Denver Broncos (5-2)
The Broncos are probably the second best team in the AFC and, at times, both the defence and offence have looked better than last year’s Super Bowl winning incarnation. However, the division means they won’t get enough wins to secure home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
The Chiefs are fully capable of putting together a run to the playoffs like they did last season but the lack of explosiveness on offence — 14th in points per game and the second fewest yards per attempt in the league — will haunt them come January.
San Diego Chargers (3-5)
The best ‘bad’ team in the NFL, the Chargers must be cursing themselves that a) they’re in the best division in football and b) left sure-fire Defensive Rookie of the Year Joey Bosa sitting for the first few weeks. Even with that, their record could easily be 6-2.
NFC
East
Dallas Cowboys (6-1)
On offence the Cowboys have two of the top three Rookie of the Year candidates in Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott but their 11th ranked defence is what stops them being a great team. That does n0t mean they’re not real Super Bowl contenders, however.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-3)
The biggest issue for Philly is the fact they are hamstrung by one of the weakest wide receiver corps in the league. That defence has shown that, while it can be elite (see Vikings and Steelers wins) it sometimes forgets to turn up (see Cowboys and Washington losses).
Washington (4-3-1)
Kirk Cousins played above himself last year and hasn’t been able to hit those heights this season. Washington wants to be a run team but Matt Jones — who didn’t start yesterday — has fumbled the ball once ever 33 carries, the NFL average is once per 100.
New York Giants (4-3)
I’m not exactly sure how the Giants have reached four wins considering they are ranked 19th on offence and 17th on defence. However, in a crowded division which has shown anyone can beat anyone, they’re still in the wild card race.
North
Minnesota Vikings (5-1)
Up to their defeat at the hands of the Eagles, the Vikings looked really good but the question you have to ask yourself is, if a team with the ghost of Peyton Manning at quarterback can win a Super Bowl, can one with Sam Bradford follow it up a year later?
Green Bay Packers (4-3)
Even in a pass heavy league, the lack of any running backs is going to be an issue. However, the biggest problem for the Packers is consistency. When they get it together on offence (v Atlanta) their defence lets them down and vice versa (v Vikings).
Detroit Lions (4-4)
Matthew Stafford and the Lions offence have not skipped a beat since the departure of Calvin Johnson but the league’s 25th ranked defence — and yesterday’s loss to Houston — will cost them a playoff spot.
Chicago Bears (1-6)
At least the Cubs still have a shot at the World Series.
South
Atlanta Falcons (5-3)
While nobody scores as many points as Atlanta, only three teams are giving up more points per game than the Falcons (28.9) who brought in head coach Dan Quinn for his defensive prowess.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-4)
After a disappointing start to the season, the Bucs appeared to turn things around but have still to win a home game and you can’t reach the postseason if you can’t win in your own house.
New Orleans Saints (3-4)
One team that does know how to win at home is the Saints. In the Superdome, they’ve scored nearly 35 points per game this season compared to an average of 23 on the road — and that’s what will keep them out of the playoffs.
Carolina Panthers (2-5)
The Panthers have learned the hard way that you can’t replace elite corners with cap space. However, there are few streakier teams in the league so don’t expect them to prop up this division for long.
West
Seattle Seahawks (4-2-1)
The Seahawks could be one of the all time great teams if they actually bothered to invest in their offensive line. Will that come back to haunt them again this season?
Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)
The Cardinals have had to completely reshape themselves on offence from the deep-threat outfit they were last year to a dink-and-dunk, run first team this. This means they’re not great at coming from behind, as yesterday proved.
Los Angeles Rams (3-4)
“I’m not going 7-9 or 8-8″ Jeff Fisher told his team on Hard Knocks. Sure Jeff. Sure.
San Francisco 49ers (1-6)
There’s not much to say about the worst roster in football other than the San Francisco 49ers have the worst roster in football.
Analysis: How one simple move caused total confusion in the Jags defence
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